Nolan Method Explained
The Nolan Method was formulated by lead Top40Weekly contributor Jarrett Nolan.
Rather than focusing only on peak position, the Nolan Method uses an inverse point-based system that rewards both longevity and impactful debuts — giving a more complete picture of what songs actually dominated the charts.
How the Nolan Method Works
Each position on the Top 40 chart is assigned a point value:
- #1 earns 40 points
- #2 earns 39 points
- #3 earns 38 points
- …
- #40 earns 1 point
👉 Points can also be calculated using the formula: 41 minus the chart position.
Songs accumulate points every week they appear on the chart. The higher the position — and the longer the run — the more points a song earns over time.
Debut Week Bonus System
To reflect immediate impact, songs receive a one-time bonus during their debut week.
Debuts Between #11–#40
- Points are doubled
- +10 bonus points added
Debuts Within the Top 10
- Points are doubled
- +20 bonus points added
📌 Bonus points apply only during the debut week
Real Billboard-Based Example
Using real chart behavior patterns seen in your dataset, here’s how the Nolan Method separates short-term hype from real dominance.
Example: High Debut vs Sustained Run
Song A — Major Debut (Typical Pop Superstar Release)
Inspired by patterns similar to Taylor Swift chart entries:
- Week 1: #1
→ 40 ×2 + 20 = 100 points - Week 2: #9 → 32 points
- Week 3: #18 → 23 points
- Week 4: #31 → 10 points
- Week 5: #40 → 1 point
Total: 166 points
Song B — Consistent Climber (Longevity-Based Hit)
Similar to long-running seasonal or slow-burn hits like All I Want for Christmas Is You:
- Week 1: #32
→ 9 ×2 + 10 = 28 points - Week 2: #25 → 16 points
- Week 3: #18 → 23 points
- Week 4: #12 → 29 points
- Week 5: #8 → 33 points
- Week 6: #5 → 36 points
- Week 7: #3 → 38 points
- Week 8: #4 → 37 points
Total: 240 points
What This Shows
Even though Song A debuted at #1 and had a huge opening, it quickly declined.
Song B, however, built momentum and stayed in strong chart positions over time — earning significantly more total points.
👉 The Nolan Method rewards real dominance, not just a strong first week.
Real-World Insight From Chart Data
Looking at cumulative chart data further reinforces why this method works.
Artists like Mariah Carey have accumulated over 100 weeks at #1, largely due to the recurring success of “All I Want for Christmas Is You.”
Meanwhile, artists such as:
- Drake
- Rihanna
- The Beatles
demonstrate different types of dominance — from explosive debuts to sustained multi-hit success.
The Nolan Method captures all of these patterns by combining:
- Weekly performance
- Longevity
- Debut impact
Why the Nolan Method Works Better
Traditional charts tend to favor:
- Peak position
- Short-term spikes
The Nolan Method instead measures:
- Consistency over time
- Chart strength week-to-week
- True cultural staying power
This prevents short-lived hits from outranking songs that genuinely dominated for months.
To Sum It All Up
Using an inverse point-based system, songs earn points for each position that they’re in within the Top 40. Songs at #1 earn 40 points all the way down to 1 point at #40.
A song can earn bonus points if it debuts on the chart within the Top 40. If a song debuts between #11 and #40, the corresponding points for that position would be double with 10 points added.
Example: A song entering the chart at #38, earns 3 points. This would be doubled to 6 points plus 10 making the total score for that week 16 points.
If a song debuts within the Top 10, its entry points would be doubled with 20 points added.
Example: A song debuts on the chart at #1 earning 40 points. The points are doubled to 80 plus 20 for entering in the top 10 giving the song a 100 total for that week.
Bonus points can only be earned on a song’s debut week within the 40.
The Nolan Method provides a more balanced and accurate way to rank songs by combining performance, longevity, and impact.
Instead of asking “How high did it go?”, it answers:
“How long and how strongly did it perform?”